More than 2.5m Sea Level Rise by 2040?

A warming period more than 400,000 years ago pushed the Greenland ice sheet past its stability threshold (which may have been no more than several degrees above pre-industrial temperatures). This resulted in a nearly complete deglaciation of southern Greenland, raising global sea levels some 4.5-6 meters, found a recent study by Reyes et al. Due to melting elsewhere, global mean sea level then was 6 to 13 metres above the present level. Indeed, melting of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet can add a further 6-meter rise in sea levels. If the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) were to melt as well, sea levels would rise by around 70 metres.

Sea level is now rising by 3.1mm (0.122 inch) per year. Much of this rise is due to rising temperatures, but there are also other factors. One quarter of the rise results from groundwater depletion, while run off from melting ice and glaciers adds another quarter and the remainder is attributed to thermal expansion of sea water. Furthermore, as temperatures rise, feedbacks start to kick in, e.g. the kinetic energy from stronger waves and more intense storms can speed things up.

Clearly, a rapid multi-meter rise would be devastating as it would flood many coastal cities, as well as much of the land now used to grow food. By how much have sea levels been rising recently and how fast can they be expected to rise in the near future?

NASA image, data by the JPL PODAAC, in support of the NASA's MEaSUREs program.

Sea levels have risen by some 60 mm over the past 20 years, as above NASA image shows, which has a linear trendline added. The question is whether a linear trendline is the most appropriate trendline, given that it suggests that a similar rise could be expected over the next 20 years. A polynomial trendline appears to fit the data better, as the animation below shows.

Such a polynomial trendline, however, points at a similar rise (of some 50 mm) in just four years time, with an even more steeper rise to follow, as illustrated by the image below.

And indeed, such a rise doesn't slow down there. A polynomial trendline applied to the data points at a sea level rise of more than 2.5 m (8.2 ft) by the year 2040.

The image below gives an idea of what a sea level rise of six feet (1.829 m) would do to the City of New York. Of course, this is only the sea level rise. Storm surge would come on top of this, as discussed at Ten Dangers of Global Warming.

So, what would be more appropriate, to expect sea levels to continue to rise in a linear way, or to take into account feedbacks that could speed things up? Where such feedbacks could lead to is illustrated by the image below.

[ from: How many deaths could result from failure to act on climate change? click on image to enlarge ]

This calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.


References

- South Greenland ice-sheet collapse during Marine Isotope Stage 11, Reyes et al. (2014)
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v510/n7506/full/nature13456.html

- Nonsustainable groundwater sustaining irrigation: A global assessment, Yoshihide Wada et al. (2012)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011WR010562/abstract

- Groundwater Depletion Linked to Rising Sea Levels
http://www.waterworld.com/articles/2010/11/groundwater-depletion-linked-to-rising.html

- Assessment of the Jason-2 Extension to the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 Sea-Surface Height Time Series for Global Mean Sea Level Monitoring, Beckley et al. (2010)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01490419.2010.491029

- Feedbacks in the Arctic
http://climateplan.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

- How many deaths could result from failure to act on climate change? (2014)
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/05/how-many-deaths-could-result-from-failure-to-act-on-climate-change.html

Post by Sam Carana.

How many deaths could result from failure to act on climate change?

A recent OECD study concludes that outdoor air pollution is killing more than 3.5 million people a year globally. The OECD estimates that people in its 34 Member countries would be willing to pay USD 1.7 trillion to avoid deaths caused by air pollution. Road transport is likely responsible for about half.

A 2012 report by DARA calculated that 5 million people were dying each year from climate change and carbon economies, mostly from indoor smoke and (outdoor) air pollution.

Back in 2012, a Reuters report calculated that this could add up to a total number of 100 million deaths over the coming two decades. This suggests, however, that failure to act on climate change will not cause even more deaths due to other causes.

Indeed, failure to act on climate change could result in many more deaths due to other causes, in particular food shortages. As temperatures rise, ever more extreme weather events can be expected, such as flooding, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and subsequent crop loss, famine, disease, heat-stroke, etc.

So, while currently most deaths are caused by indoor smoke and outdoor air pollution, in case of a failure to act on climate change the number of deaths can be expected to rise most rapidly among people hit by famine, fresh water shortages, as well as wars over food, water, etc.

How high could figures rise? Below is an update of an image from the earlier post Arctic Methane Impact with a scale in both Celsius and Fahrenheit added on the right, illustrating the danger that temperature will rise to intolerable levels if little or no action is taken on climate change. The inset shows projected global number of annual climate-related deaths for these two scenarios, i.e. no action and little action, and also shows a third scenario of comprehensive and effective action that would instead bring temperature rise under control.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

For further details on a comprehensive and effective climate plan, see the ClimatePlan blog.

Post by Sam Carana.

Feedbacks in the Arctic

This is more a climate report than a weather report; yet, the extreme weather that did hit the U.K. recently and that is forecast to hit large parts of North America next week may make more people realize that action is needed now. So, please share!

At the moment, a large part of Russia is experiencing temperature anomalies at the highest end of the scale, i.e. more than 36°F (20°C) warmer than average past records.

Above image shows the situation as at March 20, 2014. The image below is a forecast for March 22, 2014.

Over the past year, average temperatures over the Arctic Ocean have been much higher than they used to be, as illustrated by the NOAA image below.

Warming in the Arctic is accelerating, in part due to a number of feedbacks such as extreme weather. Temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are expected to rise even further next week. The Arctic as a whole is expected to reach average anomalies as high as 5.3°C next week, while many areas over the Arctic Ocean are expected to be hit by even higher anomalies, as the image below shows.

 [ click on image to enlarge ]

Above image also shows that, at the same time, very low temperatures - with anomalies at the low end of the scale - are expected to hit a large part of North America. The image below shows what temperatures can be expected on March 26, 2014, 12:00 UTC.

As above image illustrates, temperatures over a large part of North America can be expected to be hardly higher than temperatures over the Arctic Ocean mid next week. It is this very difference between high altitude temperatures and lower altitude temperatures that drives the Jet Stream. In the absence of much difference, changes to the Jet Stream are making it easier for cold air to move out of the Arctic and for warm air from lower latitudes to move in. The Polar Vortex is similarly affected, as illustrated by the image below.

At lower altitude, the highest wind speed detected on the image below was 94 km/h (green marker). Strong winds brought a lot of rain from the Atlantic Ocean to the U.K., as has been the case for some time.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The result is more extreme weather, which can translate into more intense storms, heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and further havoc. Importantly, storms across the Arctic Ocean and higher wind speeds along the edges of Greenland can break up the ice and speed up its exit from the Arctic Ocean. The Naval Research Laboratory animation below shows strong winds pushing the sea ice around and speeding up its exit along the edges of Greenland. 

Despite the cold weather that has hit large parts of North America over the past few months, the water off the coast of North America has not cooled, as illustrated by the image below. The blue and lilac colored areas are in part the result of exit currents carrying cold water out of the Arctic Ocean more rapidly, while the Gulf Stream continues to carry warmer water (brown and red colored areas) into the Arctic Ocean. 

[ Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) - click on image to enlarge ]

The Arctic is especially vulnerable to warming, due to a number of circumstances, including:
- Gulf Stream carrying warmer water into the Arctic Ocean;
- Arctic snow and ice cover is at the verge of collapse;
- Methane is present in large quantities under the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
These circumstances and the combined impact of feedbacks such as extreme weather make that, on top of global warming, the Arctic is hit by a second, addtional kind of warming, i.e. accelerating warming in the Arctic.

The joint impact of feedbacks is becoming stronger, as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic and with continued demise of the snow and ice cover. So, let's start with feedback #1, i.e. that, as snow and ice cover decline further, an ever larger part of the sunlight will be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, rather than to (a) be reflected back into space or (b) be consumed in the process of transforming ice into water. This first feedback will then be amplified by further feedbacks such as storms that can more easily develop in open water. And, as the weather becomes more extreme, stronger storms and heatwaves can be expected to hit the Arctic Ocean, causing further demise of the sea ice, resulting in more heat being absorbed by the Arctic Ocean. Thus, feedbacks can amplify each other, causing warming in the Arctic to accelerate even further. 

One of the most dangerous feedbacks is that, as the Arctic Ocean warms up further and as the Gulf Stream carries ever warmer water into the Arctic Ocean, methane can erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean in large quantities. Methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have become especially noticable over the past half year. The big danger is that this will develop into a third kind of warming, runaway global warming. 

Large amounts of methane are still entering the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, which contains very little hydroxyl to start with, so large abrupt releases will deplete the little hydroxyl that is there much faster than elsewhere. Furthermore, the methane will initially be highly concentrated in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, and where the methane does move out of the Arctic, it could warm up the water along the track of the Gulf Stream, causing even warmer water to enter the Arctic Ocean. For years after its release, the methane will act as a powerful greenhouse gas. Unlike the albedo changes, which have the highest impact at the June Solstice when the amount of solar radiation received by the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth, methane prevents heat from radiating out into space throughout the year. 

The interactive diagram below gives an overview of these three kinds of warming and the numerous feedbacks that are accelerating warming in the Arctic, from the earlier post The Biggest Story of 2013.

Hover over each kind of warming and feedback to view more details, click to go to page with further background 

In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan blog.




Related

- The Biggest Story of 2013
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-biggest-story-of-2013.html

- Climate Plan
http://climateplan.blogspot.com

- Changes to Polar Vortex affect mile-deep ocean circulation patterns
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/changes-to-polar-vortex-affect-mile-deep-ocean-circulation-patterns.html

- Diagram of Doom
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html

- Polar Jet Stream appears hugely deformed
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/12/polar-jet-stream-appears-hugely-deformed.html

- Methane Levels going through the Roof
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/methane-levels-going-through-the-roof.html

- Ocean heat: Four Hiroshima bombs a second: how we imagine climate change
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/four-hiroshima-bombs-second-how-we-imagine-climate-change.html

- (Three kinds of) Warming in the Arctic
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/warming-in-arctic.html

- Methane hydrates
http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html

Feedbacks

1. Snow and ice decline causing more sunlight to be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/albedo-change-in-arctic.html
2. Methane releases warming up Arctic air
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/methane-levels-going-through-the-roof.html
3. As sea ice decline weakens vertical currents, seabed warms
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/arctic-sea-ice-loss-is-effectively-doubling-mankinds-contribution-to-global-warming.html
4. Storms cause vertical mixing of water
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/arctic-waters-are-heating-up.html
5. Accelerated Arctic warming causes storms that push cold air of the Arctic
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html
6. Extreme weather causing storms that push away sea ice
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/04/supplementary-evidence-by-prof-peter.html
7. Extreme weather causing storms that create higher waves, breaking up the sea ice
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/huge-cyclone-batters-arctic-sea-ice.html
8. Storms creating more wavy waters that absorb more sunlight
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html
9. Extreme weather causing fires, etc.
   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/how-extreme-will-it-get.html
10. Weaker polar vortex and jet stream let cold air move out of Arctic
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/opening-further-doorways-to-doom.html
11. Extreme weather causing warmer waters
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-biggest-story-of-2013.html
12. Snow and ice decline cause seismic activity that destabilizes hydrates
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/methane-release-caused-by-earthquakes.html
13. Methane releases prevent sea ice from forming
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/methane-emerges-from-warmer-areas.html

Post by Sam Carana.

High methane levels over the Arctic Ocean on February 17, 2014

Above image shows IASI methane readings over the last day or so, when levels as high as 2223 ppb were recorded.

Where does the methane come from?

On above image, methane shows up prominently along the faultline that crosses the Arctic Ocean from the northern tip of Greenland to the Laptev Sea. This indicates that the methane originated from the depths of the Arctic Ocean, where sediments contain large amounts of methane in the form of free gas and hydrates, which have become destabilized.

High methane concentrations have persistently shown up over the Arctic Ocean since October 1, 2013. On January 19, 2014, levels as high as 2363 ppb were recorded over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

[ from earlier post, click on image to enlarge ]

Below is a comparison of methane readings for the week from February 9 to 16, 2014, compared to the same period in 2013.

[ from earlier post, click on image to enlarge ]

The above comparison shows that there is a lot of methane over the Arctic Ocean that wasn't there last year. 

Furthermore, high methane readings show up where currents move the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean, in areas such as Baffin Bay. This indicates that methane that is released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean appears to be moving underneath the ice along with exit currents and entering the atmosphere where the sea ice is fractured or thin enough to allow the methane to pass through. 

Also note that more orange areas show up on the southern hemisphere in 2014, indicating that more methane from the northern hemisphere is now spreading south beyond the equator. This in addition to indications that more methane is rising and building up at higher altitudes, as discussed in an earlier post.

Causes

What made these high releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean persist for so long? At this time of year, one might have thought that the water in the Arctic Ocean would be much colder than it was, say, on October 1, 2013.

Actually, as the combination image below shows, sea surface temperatures have not fallen much at the center of the Arctic Ocean between early October, 2013 (left) and February 17, 2014 (right). In the area where these high methane concentrations occured, sea surface temperatures have remained the same, at about zero degrees Celsius.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The above comparison image shows that, while surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean may have fallen strongly with the change of seasons, surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean have changed only little.

In this case of course, what matters more than surface temperatures are water temperatures at greater depth. Yet, even here temperatures in the Arctic Ocean will have decreased only slightly (if at all) compared to early October 2013, since the Gulf Stream has continued to push warmer water into the Arctic, i.e. water warmer than the water in the Arctic Ocean, so the heating impact of the Gulf Stream continues. Also, sea surface temperature anomalies along the path of the Gulf Stream continue to be anomalously high, as the image below shows.

The situation looks even more grim on the Climate Reanalyzer image below, showing sea surface temperature anomalies that are far more profound in the Arctic Ocean.

Note also that, as the sea ice extent increased, there have been less opportunities for the heat to evaporate on the surface and for heat to be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the air.

Finally, what matters a lot is salinity. The combination image below compares salinity levels between October 1, 2013 (left), and February 17, 2014 (right).

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Salinity levels were low on October 1, 2013, as a lot of ice and snow had melted in the northern summer and rivers had carried a lot of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean. After October 1, 2013, little or no melting took place, yet the Gulf Stream continued to carry waters with higher salt levels from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean.

Annual mean sea surface salinity

Seawater typically has a salinity level of over 3%; it freezes and melts at about −2°C (28°F). Where more saline water from the Atlantic Ocean flows into the Arctic Ocean, the water in the Arctic Ocean becomes more saline. The freezing and melting point of fresh water (i.e. zero salinity) is 0°C (or 32°F). More salinity makes frozen water more prone to melting, i.e. at temperatures lower than 0°C, or as low as −2°C.

As the salinity levels of the water on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean increased, the ice that had until then held the methane captive in hydrates on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean started to melt. Indeed, the areas in the Arctic Ocean where the high methane releases occurred on January 14, 2014 (top image) show several practical salinity units (psu) increase since October 1, 2013.

Higher salinity levels are showing up closer to the faultline that runs through the Arctic Ocean from the top of Greenland to the Laptev Sea.


Quantities

These high levels of methane showing up over the Arctic Ocean constitute only part of the methane that did escape from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Where these high concentrations did show up, the ocean can be thousands of meters deep, giving microbes plenty of opportunity to decompose methane rising through the water first. Furthermore, the methane has to pass through sea ice that is now getting more than one meter thick in the area where these high levels of methane showed up on satellite records. In conclusion, the quantities of methane that were actually released from the seafloor must have been huge.

Importantly, these are not one-off releases, such as could be the case when hydrates get destabilized by an earthquake. As the Arctic-news blog has documented, high releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have been showing up persistently since early October 2013, i.e. 4½ months ago. This blog has warned about the threat for years. This blog has also described in detail the mechanisms that are causing these releases and the unfolding climate catastrophe that looks set to become more devastating every year. The poster below illustrates the danger.

[ click on image to enlarge - note that this is a 4.9 MB file that may take some time to fully load ]

Impacts and Response

Huge releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have occurred persistently since early October 2013, even when releases like this may show up for one day in one area without showing up in that same area the next day on satellite images.

This apparent 'disappearance' can be due to the Coriolis effect that appears to move the methane, whereas it is in fact the Earth that is spinning underneath the methane. This doesn't mean that the methane had disappeared. Actually, much of this methane will persist over the Arctic for many years to come and will continue to exercize its very high initial warming potential over the Arctic for years.

Furthermore, even if less methane may show up on satellite images the next day, that doesn't necessarily mean that releases from the seafloor has stopped. Instead, it looks like methane is being released continuously from destabilizing hydrates. The methane may accumulate underneath the sea ice for some time, to burst through at a moment when fractures or ruptures occur in the sea ice, due to changes in wind and wave height.

Methane released from the Arctic Ocean seafloor has contributed to high surface temperature anomalies over the Arctic Ocean in a number of ways. As a potent greenhouse gas, methane is trapping heat that would otherwise radiate into space. Furthermore, methane rising through the sea ice reduces growth of the sea ice.

The danger is that methane will further warm up the air over the Arctic, causing further weakening of the Jet Stream and further extreme weather events, particularly extreme warming of water all the way along the path of the Gulf Stream from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean, in turn triggering further releases from hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and escalating into runaway global warming. This threat calls for comprehensive and effective action, such as described at the ClimatePlan blog.

Post by Sam Carana.

High methane levels over the Arctic Ocean on January 14, 2014

[ click on image to enlarge - note that 'level' is the peak reading for the respective altitude ]

Above image shows IASI methane levels on January 14, 2014, when levels as high as 2329 ppb were recorded. This raises a number of questions. Did these high methane levels originate from releases from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how could such high methane releases occur from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean at this time of year, when temperatures in the northern hemisphere are falling?

Location

Let's first establish where the methane releases occurred that caused these high levels. After all, high methane concentrations are visible at a number of areas, most prominently at three areas, i.e. at the center of the Arctic Ocean, in Baffin Bay and over an area in Asia stretching out from the Taklamakan Desert to the Gobi Desert.

Closer examination, illustrated by the inset, shows that the highest methane levels were recorded in the afternoon, and at altitudes where methane concentrations over these Asian deserts and over Baffin Bay were less prominent, leading to the conclusion that these high methane levels did indeed originate from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

The image below, showing 1950+ ppb readings over the past few days, illustrates the magnitude of the methane concentrations over the Arctic Ocean.

High concentrations persist over the Arctic Ocean

High methane concentrations have persistently shown up over the Arctic Ocean from October 1, 2013, through to January 2014. On January 19, 2014, levels as high as 2363 ppb were recorded over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Causes

What caused these high releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean to persist for so long? At this time of year, one may have thought that the water in the Arctic Ocean would be much colder than it was, say, on October 1, 2013.

Actually, as the combination image below shows, sea surface temperatures have not decreased much at the center of the Arctic Ocean between early October, 2013 (left) and January 14, 2014 (right). In the area where these high methane concentrations occured, sea surface temperatures have remained the same, at about zero degrees Celsius.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Furthermore, as the above image shows, surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean may have fallen dramatically with the change of season, but temperatures in the Arctic Ocean have changed only little.

In this case of course, what matters more than surface temperatures are water temperatures at greater depth. Yet, even here temperatures in the Arctic Ocean will have decreased only slightly since early October 2013, as the Gulf Stream has continued to push warmer water into the Arctic, i.e. water warmer than the water in the Arctic Ocean. In other words, the heating impact of the Gulf Stream has continued.

Furthermore, as the sea ice extent increased, there have been less opportunities for the heat to evaporate on the surface and for heat to be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the air.

Finally, what matters a lot is salinity. The combination image below compares salinity levels between October 1, 2013 (left), and January 14, 2014 (right).

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Salinity levels were low on October 1, 2013, as a lot of ice and snow had melted in the northern summer and rivers had carried a lot of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean. After October 1, 2013, little or no melting took place, yet the Gulf Stream continued to carry waters with higher salt levels from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean.

Annual mean sea surface salinity

Seawater typically has a salinity level of over 3%; it freezes and melts at about −2°C (28°F). Where more saline water from the Atlantic Ocean flows into the Arctic Ocean, the water in the Arctic Ocean becomes more saline. The freezing and melting point of fresh water (i.e. zero salinity) is 0°C (or 32°F). More salinity makes frozen water more prone to melting, i.e. at temperatures lower than 0°C, or as low as −2°C.

As the salinity levels of the water on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean increased, the ice that had until then held the methane captive in hydrates on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean started to melt. Indeed, the areas in the Arctic Ocean where the high methane releases occurred on January 14, 2014 (top image) show several practical salinity units (psu) increase since October 1, 2013.

Higher salinity levels are now reaching the faultline that runs through the Arctic Ocean from the top of Greenland to the Laptev Sea, where major releases are taking place now, as illustrated by the image below, with faultlines added on the insets.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Above image shows methane levels recorded on the evening of January 16, 2014 (main image). The top left inset shows all methane readings of 1950 ppb and higher on January 15 and 16, 2014, while the bottom left inset shows methane readings of 1950 ppb and higher on January 16, 2014, p.m. only and for seven layers only (from 469 to 586 mb), when levels as high as 2353 ppb were reached (at 469 mb).

Quantities

These high levels of methane showing up over the Arctic Ocean constitute only part of the methane that did escape from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Where these high concentrations did show up, the ocean can be thousands of meters deep, giving microbes plenty of opportunity to decompose methane rising through the water first. Furthermore, the methane has to pass through sea ice that is now getting more than one meter thick in the area where these high levels of methane showed up on satellite records. In conclusion, the quantities of methane that were actually released from the seafloor must have been huge.

Importantly, these are not one-off releases, such as could be the case when hydrates get destabilized by an earthquake. As the Arctic-news blog has documented, high releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have been showing up persistently since early October 2013, i.e. three months ago. This blog has warned about the threat for years. This blog has also described in detail the mechanisms that are causing these releases and the unfolding climate catastrophe that looks set to become more devastating every year.

Given that a study submitted in April 2013 concluded that 17 Tg annually was escaping from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf alone, given the vast quantity of the releases from hydrates that show up on IASI readings and given the prolonged periods over which releases from hydrates can persist, I put the methane being released from hydrates under the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean in the highest category, rivaling global emissions from fossil fuel, from agriculture and from wetlands. As said, the amounts of methane being released from hydrates will be greater than the methane that actually reaches the atmosphere. To put a figure on the latter, my estimate is that emissions from hydrates and permafrost currently amount to 100 Tg annually, a figure that is growing rapidly. This 100 Tg includes 1 Tg for permafrost, similar to IPCC estimates.

This is vastly more than the IPCC's most recent estimates, which put emissions from hydrates and permafrost at 7 Tg annually, a mere 1% of the total annual methane emissions globally, as illustrated by the image below.

Impacts and Response

Huge releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have occurred persistently since early October 2013, even when releases like this may show up for one day in one area without showing up in that same area the next day on satellite images.

This apparent 'disappearance' can be due to the Coriolis effect that appears to move the methane, whereas it is in fact the Earth that is spinning underneath the methane. This doesn't mean that the methane had disappeared. Actually, much of this methane will persist over the Arctic for many years to come and will continue to exercize its very high initial warming potential over the Arctic for years.

Furthermore, even if less methane may show up on satellite images the next day, that doesn't necessarily mean that releases from the seafloor has stopped. Instead, it looks like methane is being released continuously from destabilizing hydrates. The methane may accumulate underneath the sea ice for some time, to burst through at a moment when fractures or ruptures occur in the sea ice, due to changes in wind and wave height.

The threat here is that methane will further warm up the air over the Arctic, causing further weakening of the Jet Stream and further extreme weather events, particularly extreme warming of water all the way along the path of the Gulf Stream from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean, in turn triggering further releases from hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and escalating into runaway global warming. This threat calls for comprehensive and effective action, such as described at the ClimatePlan blog.

Post by Sam Carana.

High Methane Readings continue over Depth of Arctic Ocean

The image below contains 12 frames, with methane readings recorded over 12 days in the first half of October 2013.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

As discussed in earlier posts at this blog, high methane readings have been recorded recently over the depth of Arctic Ocean. Above image shows that these high readings are continuing. The image below shows that at 469 mb, the altitude at which the highest reading was recorded on the afternoon of October 13, methane shows up very prominently over the Arctic Ocean.

The fact that little methane shows up elsewhere indicates that methane is present at high levels, at times over 2200 ppb, over the depth of the Arctic Ocean, and that these high levels result from methane that originates from hydrates under the seabed.

The image below, with methane readings over the past few days (from October 12 10:00 pm to October 14 11:23 pm), shows high levels of methane over the depth of the Arctic Ocean.

The image below shows methane readings at 586 mb, the altitude at which the highest methane reading was recorded on the afternoon of October 14 (a reading of 2248 ppb). Again, methane is present very prominently over the depth of the Arctic Ocean.

Post by Sam Carana.

 

Warm water keeps flowing into the Kara Sea

The image below, from methanetracker.org, shows methane levels at 1950 and higher in yellow, for the period of July 17 to July 23, 2013.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The temperature map below, for July 26, 2013, from Wunderground, shows that high temperatures are still prominent in Russia, at much the same location where most of the methane in above image shows up.

High temperatures warm up the water flowing into the Kara Sea, as shown on the image below for July 26, 2013, from the Danish Meteorological Institute.

Earth is on the edge of runaway warming

Earth within our solar system's habitable zone

How well is Earth's orbit around the sun positioned within the boundaries of the habitable zone? The illustration by the Wikipedia image on the right would give that impression that Earth was comfortably positioned in the middle of this zone.

What is the habitable zone? To be habitable, a planet the size of Earth should be within certain distances from its Sun, in order for liquid water to exist on its surface, for which temperatures must be between freezing point (0° C) and boiling point (100° C) of water.

In the Wikipedia image, the dark green zone indicates that a planet the size of Earth could possess liquid water, which is essential since carbon compounds dissolved in water form the basis of all earthly life, so watery planets are good candidates to support similar carbon-based biochemistries.

If a planet is too far away from the star that heats it, water will freeze. The habitable zone can be extended (light green color) for larger terrestrial planets that could hold on to thicker atmospheres which could theoretically provide sufficient warming and pressure to maintain water at a greater distance from the parent star.

A planet closer to its star than the inner edge of the habitable zone will be too hot. Any water present will boil away or be lost into space entirely. Rising temperatures caused by greenhouse gases could lead to a moist greenhouse with similar results.

The distance between Earth and the Sun is one astronomical unit (1 AU). Mars is often said to have an average distance from the Sun of 1.52 AU. A recent study led by Ravi Kopparapu at Penn State mentions that early Mars was warm enough for liquid water to flow on its surface. However, the present-day solar flux at Mars distance is 0.43 times that of Earth. Therefore, the solar flux received by Mars at 3.8 Gyr was 0.75 × 0.43 = 0.32 times that of Earth. The corresponding outer habitable zone limit today, then, would be about 1.77 AU, i.e. just a bit too far away from the Sun to sustain water in liquid form. Venus, on the other hand, is too close to the Sun (see box below).

Kopparapu calculates that the Solar System’s habitable zone lies between 0.99 AU (92 million mi, 148 million km) and 1.70 AU (158 million mi, 254 million km) from the Sun. In other words, Earth is on the edge of runaway warming.

Image by Kopparapu et al. New calculations show that Earth is positioned on the edge of the habitable zone (green-shaded region), boundaries of which are determined by the moist-greenhouse (inner edge, higher flux values) and maximum greenhouse (outer edge, lower flux values)

Kopparapu says that if current IPCC temperature projections of a 4 degrees K (or Celsius) increase by the end of this century are correct, our descendants could start seeing the signatures of a moist greenhouse by 2100.

Kopparapu argues that once the atmosphere makes the transition to a moist greenhouse, the only option would be global geoengineering to reverse the process. In such a moist-greenhouse scenario, not only are the ozone layers and ice caps destroyed, but the oceans would begin evaporating into the atmosphere's upper stratosphere.

Venus' runaway greenhouse effect a warning for Earth by Sam Carana - first posted November 28, 2007, at: http://global-warming.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474977189423 Venus was transformed from a haven for water to a fiery hell by an runaway greenhouse effect, concludes the European Space Agency (ESA), after studying data from the Venus Express, which has been orbiting Venus since April 2006. Venus today is a hellish place with surface temperatures of over 400°C (752°Fahrenheit), winds blowing at speeds of over 100 m/s (224 mph) and pressure a hundred times that on Earth, a pressure equivalent, on Earth, to being one km (0.62 miles) under the sea. Hakan Svedhem, ESA scientist and lead author of one of eight studies published on Wednesday in the British journal Nature, says that Earth and Venus have nearly the same mass, size and density, and have about the same amount of carbon dioxide. In the past, Venus was much more Earth-like and was partially covered with water, like oceans, the ESA scientists believe. How could a world so similar to Earth have turned into such a noxious and inhospitable place? The answer is planetary warming. At some point, atmospheric carbon triggered a runaway warming on Venus that boiled away the oceans. As water vapour is a greenhouse gas, this further trapped solar heat, causing the planet to heat up even more. So, more surface water evaporated, and eventually dissipated into space. It was a “positive feedback” -- a vicious circle of self-reinforcing warming which slowly dessicated the planet. “Eventually the oceans began to boil”, said David Grinspoon, a Venus Express interdisciplinary scientist from the Denver Museum of Nature and Science, Colorado, USA. “You wound up with what we call a runaway greenhouse effect”, Hakan Svedhem says. Venus Express found hydrogen and oxygen ions escaping in a two to one ratio, meaning that water vapor in the atmosphere the little that is left of what they believe were once oceans is still disappearing. While most of Earth's carbon store remained locked up in the soil, rocks and oceans, on Venus it went into the atmosphere, resulting in Venus' atmosphere now consisting of about 95% carbon dioxide. “Earth is moving along the curve that connects it to Venus”, warns Dmitry Titov, science coordinator of the Venus Express mission. References - Venus Express - European Space Agency (ESA) http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Venus_Express/SEMGK373R8F_0.html - Venus inferno due to 'runaway greenhouse effect', say scientists http://www.physorg.com/news115477239.html - Probe likens young Venus to Earth http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/32018 - European mission reports from Venus http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v437/n7062/full/4371071a.html

References

- Habitable zones around main-sequence stars: new estimates

Ravi Kumar Kopparapu et al. 2013

http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/765/2/131

- Habitable Zone - Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitable_zone

- Earth is closer to the edge of Sun's habitable zone

http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/mar/25/earth-is-closer-to-the-edge-of-suns-habitable-zone

- Updated model for identifying habitable zones around stars puts Earth on the edge

http://www.gizmag.com/habitable-zone/26051/

Open Letter to Canadian MPs

Paul Beckwith

Food is the new oil. Land is the new gold.

The world food situation is deteriorating. Grain stocks have dropped to a dangerously low level. The World Food Price Index has doubled in a decade. The ranks of the hungry are expanding. Political unrest is spreading.

On the demand side of the food equation, there will be 219,000 people at the dinner table tonight who were not there last night. And some 3 billion increasingly affluent people are moving up the food chain, consuming grain-intensive livestock and poultry products.

At the same time, water shortages and heat waves are making it more difficult for farmers to keep pace with demand. As grain-exporting countries ban exports to keep their food prices down, importing countries are panicking. In response, they are buying large tracts of land in other countries to grow food for themselves. The land rush is on.

Could food become the weak link for us as it was for so many earlier civilizations? This slideshow presentation, based on Lester Brown's latest book, Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity, explains why world food supplies are tightening and tells what we need to do about it.
http://www.earth-policy.org/books/fpep/fpep_presentation

My video clip filmed about 3 weeks ago on Parliament Hill explains the clear connections between crop failures/droughts/floods/extreme weather/sea ice/greenhouse gases/climate change...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=zw1GEp8UBj4

This is my presentation on Parliament Hill (Center blog) a few months ago at the All-Party Climate Change Caucus meeting.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7NG42RjVQLXBrV1k/edit

This is a longer version of the linkages between food shortages and declining sea ice.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7NThkM05iN1BXZ2s/edit


Please let me know what your plan is to deal with this coming turmoil.
I look forward to your response.


Sincerely,

Paul Beckwith (B.Eng. Engineering Physics, M.Sc. Physics, presently working on Ph.D. in climatology)